Monthly Market Update: Looking back - Looking forward

This year has been a roller coaster in every sense of the phrase, and when we take a roller coaster ride it can be hard to know where you are and where you're going! So, let's take a few minutes  to recap where the stock market is today and what  economic & market items we need to be aware of. This "look back - look forward" method helps ensure that we have the correct expectations and plan in place to maximize potential results.

How do we build portfolios at Creekmur Wealth?

Nearly everyone we meet with will eventually ask some form of this crucial question. And it's a good one because being a successful investor is often predicated upon having a well-developed investment plan. Over the years, we have honed our investment management methodology into what we describe as a “Core & Satellite” strategy to ensure that our investment plan is clear and concise. Let me explain how this works in our Creekmur Wealth portfolios.

How does DATA help us make Investment Decisions?

In this week’s Flash Briefing we will dive into how we use data as part of the Creekmur Wealth Investment process. We have found that good, quality data points and clear, unbiased analysis help us make the highest quality investment decisions for our clients. 

Our country, and really the whole world, is incredibly polarized surrounding the correct response to COVID-19. These polar opposite view points are further driven by voices in the media and opinions on social media most of whom claim to be using "data" to arrive at their conclusions. To thrive as investors in this environment, it is critical to track and review unbiased data points to help cut through the noise.

Why is the Stock Market increasing in the midst of such uncertainty?

This year has been quite the ride in markets both domestic and global. Here in the U.S. we have experienced the quickest slide into a bear market in history, followed by an equally incredible market bounce in short order:

Crisis Management for Small Business Owners

During this recent period of "shelter in place" orders across the nation, many small business owners have experienced immediate impact in both revenue and day-to-day operations. In an effort to provide financial assistance for these businesses, the government passed several fiscal support packages to be administered through the Small Business Administration. Unfortunately, due to extremely high demand for these grants and loans, many businesses were unable to secure financing. And, of those who have received a loan, some business owners report uncertainty as to the terms and conditions surrounding how to spend the funds.¹

First Quarter Earnings 

In the week ahead we expect earning reports from a well-rounded group of companies that represent or impact every aspect of our economy. This will give us a clear indication of the underlying health of the economy, impact of the virus, and how companies see themselves performing for the rest of the year.

Will this current Stock Market Rally continue?

First of all, as with everything market related over the last few months – anything could happen and we would not be surprised! There is no historical precedent for current events to aid in determining what the future holds with the stock market. But we can make some observations:

From February 20 to March 23 the S&P 500 dropped by 33.67%. Then, rose by 28.48% from March 23 to April 17. This V-shaped market bounce was largely unrelated to the economic and medical news occurring at the same time. So, where does the market go from here?

• Near Term Volatility – We use a technical indicator called Bollinger Bands to help us analyze where the market may move in the coming days or weeks. Bollinger Bands track the upper and lower Standard Deviation level of the Moving Average Price of a Security. In plain English, this simply means that you can see how undervalued or overvalued a security or the market as a whole is. Historically, if the price of the security touches the top or bottom of the Bollinger Bands you will see a movement in the opposite direction in short order. Take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 over the past year:

When did you first notice that something unprecedented was occurring with the Covid-19 virus?

I currently live in Washington D.C. and up until last week there were no noticeable differences in day to day life. However, I recognized the unusual nature of this situation last week when I headed down to Trader Joe’s to stock up on groceries for the next few weeks. Millennial that I am, I thought that if I got to Trader Joe’s 5 minutes before the doors opened at 8:00 AM that I would have the place to myself – I couldn’t have been more wrong.