At Creekmur Wealth Advisors we have had the unique opportunity over the last 30 years to partner with thousands of families from around the country and help them achieve their goals and dreams. There is nothing more rewarding than working with a client for years, or even decades, and seeing how these individuals use the tool that is money to live out their ideal lifestyle.

Over the years, we have found a wide disparity of outcomes between those that utilize a true financial plan and those that do not. Those with a plan can navigate the market or economic storms that will inevitably come and have peace of mind throughout that difficult time. Those without a plan often struggle to make the right decision or end up making an emotional decision that is not based on data that ultimately hurts them. Those with a plan usually end up achieving their primary goal and then have the resources to pursue other passions or dreams that they have. Those without a plan frequently don’t recognize how much potential their finances could afford them.

I recently came across a study from Cerulli Associates that dove into this very topic:

These results somewhat surprised me at first, but after taking some time to consider our own experience working with clients, these results actually appeared to be quite accurate. Whether you are building a home, taking a vacation, or planning for your financial future having a clearly defined goal and structured plan to help you achieve that goal ensures that you can proceed with confidence and peace of mind. There will always be another market crash, economic recession, or even drastic changes in one’s personal life. Our desire at Creekmur Wealth is to ensure that our clients do not have to worry about money during any of those challenging moments. That is why we have created the Retirement Blueprint.

The Retirement Blueprint is a customized retirement plan that seeks to ensure that the four pillars of your retirement – Income, Investments, Taxes, and Legacy - have a clearly defined plan in place to address each risk that could stand in the way of you achieving your goals. The below link goes into greater detail on the exact planning work that goes into building each of these pillars:

Whenever a Blueprint is completed that does not mean the work stops. One constant in our world is change, and as change occurs your Blueprint needs to evolve with it. That is why we meet with our clients throughout the year to review progress towards their goals and address any changes in the world around us, whether that be a market, tax, or lifestage change. Below are a couple of conversations that our Founder & CEO John Creekmur had with our clients regarding how life changes can lead to a need to evolve your Retirement Blueprint:

Studies have shown that the vast majority of Americans do not have a written retirement plan. Which is why our team of qualified and credentialed professionals live every day striving to help ensure that no individual or family is without a plan. If you do not have a retirement income plan, or maybe have concerns about your current plan, I would strongly encourage you to reach out to our team. Our advisors and CFP Professionals are standing by to help you achieve your goals and dreams.

The information presented is not investment advice - it is for educational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities or investment advisory services. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial adviser when making investment decisions.

Last week saw critical economic data released concerning the current trends for inflation and economic growth. After the data was released a number of talking heads and media reports began utilizing a phrase called “Stagflation” based on the trends that are beginning to emerge in the economic data. We wanted to write a brief summary of the history and meaning of Stagflation, as well as digging into some of the steps that we are taking to help protect our clients and ensuring that each of you continue on your path towards achieving those major financial goals that you have.

Stagflation is characterized as slow economic GDP growth, rising or high unemployment, and rising inflation. Last week’s data was the first time that this trend emerged since the 1970s, however, we will need to see multiple months of the same data trends to truly state we are in a stagflationary environment. Gross Domestic Product increased at a pace of 1.6% annualized for the January – March 2024 time period, which was well below the estimated growth rate of 2.4% for that time period. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Index, which is a key inflation metric, increased at a 3.4% annualized rate for the quarter, which was higher than anticipated. Currently, unemployment is not rising at a rate that is higher than anticipated, which is one area of relief. That said, falling economic growth coupled with rising inflation is one of the first warning signs that we could be entering into a stagflationary environment. Expectations for Global GDP show a strong belief that economic growth will strongly decelerate this year:

There is still time for Central Banks around the world to engineer a “Soft Landing”, which would entail no recession, strong employment, and positive economic growth. While there is still time for this landing to occur, the current data shows that Central Banks worldwide will have an increasingly tough time making that happen.

The most recent period of Stagflation occurred during the 1970s. During that decade the average inflation rate was 7.4% annually, there was significant scarcity of key commodities such as oil, unemployment was high, and consumer confidence was very low. Additionally, the S&P 500 compounded at 5.9% a year during the decade, which trailed the average inflation rate of 7.4% by 1.6. While there are similarities between today and the 1970s, there are still a number of key differences. Unemployment is currently low, consumer confidence is still high, and commodity production is much less volatile. The biggest difference between today and the 1970s is the impact of technology on our daily lives. Technology advancements over the last 20 years have helped the global economy to experience a deflationary economic environment during that time. Technological advancements lead to more efficiency, which decreases costs across the board, and in turn leads to a strong economy or stock market. It is important to study history in order to better understand the potential outcomes and necessary adjustments needed in today’s world, but we must also recognize that our world today is considerably different than it was 50 years ago.

The most frequent question we have received from our clients is how do we ensure our financial plan or retirement is not negatively impacted if we do have an extended stagflationary environment? Below are three key areas we encourage everyone to dig into in their personal financial life:

1. Have a Data-Tested Plan – Each of our clients has a customized retirement income plan that is stress tested using different periods of economic distress to determine whether or not they will be able to achieve their goals. One of the key periods that we have been stress testing all retirement income plans we have built for is the 1970s. We have been doing this over the course of the last few years as we anticipated there was a strong chance of stagflation potentially returning. On average we have seen that the majority of our client’s current plans are very strong and do not see reductions to their spending capacity in retirement. If you do not have a Data Tested Retirement Income Plan this is the first critical step you need to take to ensure you are protected from the potential of Stagflation.
   
   
2. Review Portfolio Asset Allocation – The 1970s saw the S&P 500 trail core inflation by 1.6% over the full decade. A major difference in many investors' portfolios between the ‘70s and today is the proliferation of index funds being utilized. During strong bull markets, the utilization of index funds is a great way to ensure that your portfolio experiences strong returns. However, periods of extreme market and economic volatility is a time period where investment flexibility is key to having returns that keep pace with or exceed inflation. Below is a great chart that details how various sectors performed during the 1970s:
   
   - It is important to remember that history rhymes, it does not repeat. What areas of the markets performed well in the 1970s will likely have strong potential for outperformance again, however the world today is exceptionally different. Technology has increased economic efficiency, which leads to a deflationary environment, and has become a key component of our daily lives, which has led to increasingly well run and capitalized companies that can continue to maintain strong stock growth.
   
   - That said, in client portfolios we have already over weighted to equities in the energy, industrial, and commodity sectors. Additionally, we are closely tracking how the largest tech companies are performing as a business on a quarterly basis, so far these companies have continued to have impressive revenue growth while closely monitoring or decreasing the expense side of their balance sheet. This is a great sign that these companies are taking the necessary steps to protect shareholders from the risks of Stagflation. We will likely continue to adjust in client portfolios if data that is released in the coming months shows a continuing stagflationary trend emerging.
   
   - We are encouraging every client we speak with to have a Portfolio Stress Test conducted. We utilize a software tool that looks at how your portfolio would have performed during the 1970s as it is currently invested. What we have seen across the board are portfolios that are significantly underweight to the Energy and Industrial sectors. This is a function of the incredible, technology-driven bull market that we have been in for the last 15 years. This does not mean that you should invest fully into Energy and Industrials, with nothing in Technology. This means that you need to ensure that you have a well-diversified portfolio that can be adjusted as more data and trends emerge.
   
   
3. Maintain Flexibility – During periods of economic uncertainty it is key that each of us has flexibility in our financial lives to adjust as trends emerge. Flexibility comes in many forms. For example, having a minimum of 6 months’ worth of expenses in cash is a key cornerstone that allows you to weather a wide variety of expenses that may arise. Paying down debt as much as possible to increase monthly cash flow is another great step to take. But most importantly, having a customized plan in place that is data tested, but also flexible to allow for the readjustment of your plan is important to be able to stay in front of the changes that are likely coming in the months ahead. If you do not have a Retirement Income Plan or have not reviewed your plan in a while, I would strongly encourage you to reach out to our time to schedule time to ensure your plan is data tested and has these risks addressed. 
   

   Understanding history and data is critical to ensuring that your plans for the years ahead are not thrown off. We believe that there are steps that every individual can take to ensure that you are able to live out the life you envision for your family and yourself. Our team has compiled a great lineup of resources and tools to help our clients address these concerns, I would encourage you to reach out to schedule time with your advisor if you have any questions or would like to see how your current plans are impacted by the emerging Stagflationary trend.

The information presented is not investment advice - it is for educational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities or investment advisory services. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial adviser when making investment decisions.

With the recent AI-fueled rally, there are now six companies in the US with a $1 trillion-plus valuation. To put that into perspective, one billion seconds is roughly 31.7 years while one trillion seconds is just over 31,700 years. Referring to these companies as astronomical would almost be an understatement. Not surprisingly, these companies are largely tech-based:

• Microsoft ($3.1 trillion)
• Apple ($2.7 trillion)
• Nvidia ($2.3 trillion)
• Amazon ($1.8 trillion)
• Alphabet ($1.7 trillion)
• Meta ($1.3 trillion)

Going back to just 2015, the top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 only made up 17.8% of the weight. Needless to say, the most widely followed benchmark in the world has become much more concentrated in recent years.

What does this mean for markets going forward? What if these top companies falter...would it trigger a market meltdown with so much weight in just a handful of stocks?

It’s important to understand how market concentration has fluctuated throughout history. From 1950 - 1970, it was common for the top 10 holdings to make up more than a third of the S&P’s total market cap. The top 10 accounted for over 40% of the S&P 500 in the early 70s before starting a trend lower. Concentration remained more muted in the 80s and 90s, averaging below 20%, but spiked higher again leading up to the dot-com bubble.

Over this period of time, the S&P 500 has still averaged a solid 11.28% average annual return amid these market concentration shifts. It’s normal for different companies to ebb and flow into and out of the top 10. The majority of today’s top holdings didn’t even exist back in 1950, but the market continued to grow and expand. The largest companies tend to represent the trends and preferences of the times.

Using the late 1990s as a proxy for today, large tech-focused companies were dominating the markets, with the top 10 holdings making up a quarter of the S&P 500. This was great when markets were firing on all cylinders. Just look at the returns in the last half of the decade.

Not a bad five-year stretch there. The data above also shows that strong trends with bubble-like characteristics can last for much longer than most investors think. However, the good times didn’t last forever. When the dot-com bubble popped, the S&P 500 saw three consecutive losing years, with large-cap tech companies leading the way lower.

This doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see the exact same scenario play out in the 2020s. There are plenty of differences, for the better, when comparing today's environment to the dot-com era. For example, the tech companies in question today are more profitable and cash-heavy than the companies of the early 2000s.

Nonetheless, market trends can change direction quickly, without much notice. This is why maintaining a diversified portfolio can be so important. It can be tempting to chase trends as they happen in real-time, but patience can pay off over the long run. Just look at how some of these non-tech market categories held up during the dot-com bubble.

While large-cap tech companies were being pummeled, a diversified portfolio would have held up much better. This is even true in more recent history. During the bear market of 2022, we saw sharp losses in these mega-cap companies - Alphabet (38.67%), Amazon (49.50%), Apple (26.31%), Meta (64.22%), Microsoft (28.02%), and Nvidia (50.26%). Compared to the 18.11% loss for the S&P 500, each of these stocks was far worse than the Index. As these big name tech companies faltered, other sectors stepped up to help offset the losses.

Diversification isn’t about maximizing returns in any given year. It’s more about risk management and regret minimization. Market trends tend to work like a pendulum, swinging from one side to the other as investors try to find the appropriate equilibrium. There’s no way to know exactly what comes next, but holding various asset classes can help insulate against concentration risk, while still providing some exposure to whatever’s working at the time.

Remember, if your investments feel too exciting then you might be gambling, not investing. Successful investing should be boring, with different asset classes working together to achieve an appropriate balance over a long-term time horizon.

The information presented is not investment advice - it is for educational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities or investment advisory services. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial adviser when making investment decisions.