Will this current Stock Market Rally continue?
First of all, as with everything market related over the last few months – anything could happen and we would not be surprised! There is no historical precedent for current events to aid in determining what the future holds with the stock market. But we can make some observations:
From February 20 to March 23 the S&P 500 dropped by 33.67%. Then, rose by 28.48% from March 23 to April 17. This V-shaped market bounce was largely unrelated to the economic and medical news occurring at the same time. So, where does the market go from here?
- Near Term Volatility – We use a technical indicator called Bollinger Bands to help us analyze where the market may move in the coming days or weeks. Bollinger Bands track the upper and lower Standard Deviation level of the Moving Average Price of a Security. In plain English, this simply means that you can see how undervalued or overvalued a security or the market as a whole is. Historically, if the price of the security touches the top or bottom of the Bollinger Bands you will see a movement in the opposite direction in short order. Take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 over the past year: